Immigration Reform 2013: Can A ‘Discharge Petition’ Save The Senate Bill In The House?

On July 10, all 231 House Republicans will convene in the basement of the Capitol building to discuss what to do about the Senate immigration reform bill, which passed 68 to 27 in that chamber on June 27. Any strategy they develop will likely envision a way of passing a bill which does not include a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants currently in the United States - a main tenet of the Senate legislation. But supporters of the Senate bill may be able to get around House Speaker John Boehner's refusal to introduce it in the House by way of a "discharge petition".

If 218 members of the House sign a discharge petition, the bill automatically goes to the House floor to a vote despite whatever objections come from leaders. If all 201 Democrats got on board, they would still need 17 Republicans to defy their party's leadership.

RELATED: Filemon Vela Backs Out Of Congressional Hispanic Caucus Over Border Surge

Boehner has indicated that he supports immigration reform - acknowledging what many of the party's elites say is the GOP's only chance to stay relevant on the national scene - but that he would listen to the wishes of his party's majority. It's possible that some more moderate Republicans could risk such an act of disloyalty in the belief that they would be defying other representatives, not party leadership.

RELATED: Congressional Budget Office Says Senate Bill Would Cut Inflow Of Undocumented By As Much As Half

Marshall Fitz from the liberal think tank Center for American Progress told NBC News at the end of June there was a "vote-no-pray-yes camp" in the GOP. "There are Republicans who want to get this done but who can't see going back to their home district and defending it," he said.

RELATED: Will House Republicans Ever Back A Path To Citizenship?

MSNBC notes that as many as 40 House Republicans who consider themselves moderates and who have grown unhappy with their party's direction could break ranks. It also suggests that as many as 10 conservative "Blue Dog" Democrats from Southern states may balk at signing the discharge petition, necessitating 27 Republicans to add their signature. But not every liberal Democrat is guaranteed to sign, either. Last week, Rep. Filemon Vela (D- Brownsville) left the Congressional Hispanic Caucus over the "border surge" called for by the Senate bill -- $46 billion appropriated for 20,000 extra Border Patrol agents, border fences and surveillance technology - saying it "perpetuates an environment of fear and separation". For now, though, the discharge petition could be immigration reform's best chance at passing.