Analysts See Venezuela More Isolated as China and Russia Prioritize Other Conflicts: 'This Time Maduro is Completely Alone'

Venezuela's authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro is increasingly isolated as Beijing and Moscow limit their support to rhetoric while focusing on other geopolitical priorities, according to regional analysts cited by BBC Mundo.

"He has little time left," said Fernando Reyes Matta, director of the Center for China Studies at Universidad Andrés Bello in Chile. "The backing he once had is no longer there in real terms, beyond certain rhetorical statements."

Reyes Matta also told the outlet that neither China nor Russia have shown willingness to provide the level of military support seen in previous crises.

The shift marks a departure from 2019, when both countries rejected international recognition of opposition leader Juan Guaidó and offered economic and military assistance. Analysts say their posture today suggests Maduro is facing the current crisis largely without their help.

Russian and Chinese officials have recently voiced solidarity with Venezuela and warned against "direct aggression," but unlike in 2018 — when Moscow deployed more than 100 military personnel and nuclear-capable bombers to Caracas — their actions remain limited to words this time around.

Reyes Matta said both governments now see greater risks in deepening support. Russia's war in Ukraine has absorbed financial and military resources, while China is working to stabilize relations with the United States after recent talks between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. "There are no reasons today for Russia or China to gamble on defending Venezuela," he said, noting the potential economic and diplomatic consequences.

China's reassessment also follows years of diminished returns on loans to Venezuela as its economy and oil industry deteriorated. Vladimir Rouvinski, director of the PoInt research lab at Universidad Icesi in Colombia, told BBC Mundo:

"I believe China is willing to negotiate with any government that may eventually replace Maduro, and considers that supporting him too much now could bring negative consequences when the regime falls"

"I don't think either Russia or China is willing to support a regime that has so little internal backing," Reyes Matta said. Rouvinski echoed the sentiment, saying that "this time, Maduro is completely alone" and that while both powers continue criticizing U.S. intervention, "they are not willing to go further."

Maduro has, however, insisted publicly that strategic cooperation with China and Russia remains strong and has thanked both governments for their support.

Speaking on state television in late November, Maduro touted Venezuela's relationship with China as one of "deep, broad and stable trust" adding that recent events had "strengthened our partnership." He also showed a letter he said was sent by Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of his birthday, in which the Russian head of State reaffirmed Moscow's support and expressed confidence that Venezuela would "overcome all tests with dignity," as CNN reports.