Trump and Biden
Donald Trump and Joe Biden AFP

President Joe Biden continues to trail his presumptive rival in the 2024 elections, Donald Trump, in most battleground states he won four years ago as key demographics that overwhelmingly supporter him (Latinos, Blacks and young people) show increased levels of dissatisfaction with his administration.

Among the main reasons for this are economic uncertainty and the government's handling of the Israel-Hamas war, according to the latest edition of a New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer.

Biden currently leads Trump among registered voters in only one of six states surveyed, Wisconsin. He trails in the remaining five: Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Michigan.

The race was closer among likely voters, the poll showed, but Trump still led in five out of the six states that Biden won in 2020 and were key to his electoral college victory. Nonetheless, the survey noted, Biden could win the election by taking Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, provided gets all other states from four years ago.

According to the poll's cross-border tabs, when given the choice between only Biden and Trump, 45% of Latino respondents chose the former and 42% the latter, with 12% saying they didn't know.

The figure was in the middle of Whites, who leaned for Trump by a 54-39% margin, and Blacks, with whom Biden still holds a 40 percentage point lead (63-23%).

However, final figures at the polls could change substantially as less than one in three Latinos (32%) are almost certain to vote, another 32% being very likely to do so. These are the lowest figures for all three demographics surveyed, with Whites being the most likely to cast a ballot in November.

Unsurprisingly, then, Latinos also had the largest percentage of people saying they are not at all likely to vote, with 13% of the total. An additional 7% said they were not very likely to do so.

Trump has been steadily gaining support with the Latino electorate during the past decade, increasing from 28% in 2016 to 36% in 2020, according to the Pew Research Center. In 2022, Republicans got 39 percent of the Latino vote, the highest percentage since 2004.

"The surveys show that the cost of living, immigration, Israel's war in Gaza and a desire for change continue to be a drag on the president's standing," the poll said in its analysis of the results, noting that a boost following his State of the Union address in March proved to be short-lived.

Overall, nearly 70% of voters said that the country's political and economic systems need major changes, or even complete ones. This notion has also eroded his support among Latinos, who along with Blacks and young voters want fundamental changes to American society. Few in those groups believe Biden can bring about what they want. Almost 40% of Trump likely voters said economic issues were primarily driving their vote.

"Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanic voters, even though each group gave Mr. Biden more than 60 percent of their vote in 2020. Mr. Trump also wins more than 20 percent of Black voters — a tally that would be the highest level of Black support for any Republican presidential candidate since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act of 1964," the poll said.

This has helped Trump widen his lead in more diverse states like Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, whose voters largely went for Biden in 2020. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which are largely whiter and older, have the incumbent in a more competitive race, as this demographic is less likely to demand radical changes to society.

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