Biden regains ground with Latinos as poll shows election close enough to be a 'coin flip'

As the U.S. presidential elections get closer by the day, the amount of related political literature keeps growing, providing analyses and images of what the race looks like in certain times and places.

One of the latest snapshots comes from a USA Today/Suffolk University poll. It shows that, in contrast with other surveys and indicators that have shown Biden losing ground amid renewed economic woes, he has actually regained some over the past three months.

In fact, he has tied his presumptive rival, Donald Trump, to the extent that the race could now be considered a "coin flip" as both have a 37% voting intention at the moment.

Latinos have seemingly played a role in this, but not because they have warmed up to Biden. According to the survey, his level of support has stayed the same, but Trump has lost 11 percentage points during this period. "Biden now leads 34%-28%, still short of the 2-1 edge he had in 2020," the poll said.

Other demographics showing changes in favor of Biden are voters under 35 year old and independents. Among the former, the incumbent gained one point while Trump lost 12. As for the latter, Biden gained five points and Trump lost four, meaning they are "essentially tied."

Looking at this key demographic, Trump currently has 27% of the support, compared to Biden's 26%, but 22% are undecided and 23% will support third-party candidates.

The uncertainty is plaguing a large portion of the electorate, as almost one in four registered voters (24%) said they might change their minds before going to the polls and 12% haven't made a choice yet.

Robert F. Kennedy, who has positioned himself as the main candidate asides from Biden and Trump, has over 8% of the vote, while other contenders have a combined 5%. "Most of their supporters acknowledge they might switch their allegiances before they cast a ballot," the poll noted.

"Eight in 10 of those supporting Kennedy say they might change their minds before they vote. So do 88% of those supporting independent Cornel West, 65% of those who plan to support the Libertarian nominee, and 58% backing Green Party candidate Jill Stein."

It added that support for third-party candidates tends to decline as the elections get closer, "although in close elections the impact of drawing only thousands of voters in swing states can tip the election outcome."

Looking at how many members of the different demographics could change their minds, 37% of Latinos said that was the case for them, compared to 27% of Black voters and 44% of voters under 35%.

Doubts among Latinos have been documented lately, with a recent NBC News report showing that many young members of this cohort living in battleground states revealed they are unmotivated to cast a ballot for any of the candidates available.

Democrats drew on solid young Latino support in battleground states to secure their 2020 and 2022 victories, according to NBC News. In 2020, new voters of all backgrounds under age 30 favored Biden over Trump, 59% to 33%.

But despite historical traditions, a variety of current literature shows a tight race among the candidates, particularly among young people and minority groups. So much so that some experts are unsure of how to predict the behaviors of these groups.

In this context, Latinos Con Biden, the President's initiative to appeal to the demographic's vote, is ramping efforts. Most of them will focus on economic and health issues, according to initiative chair Rep. Veronica Escobar.

"What we're seeing in the conversations we're having across the country is that the economy is a priority for Latinos. Jobs and wages," the Representative told La Opinión in an interview.

Aside from the Latinos Con Biden-Harris initiative, the Democratic campaign has also invested $30 million in a spring media buy, using a mix of Spanish-language accents as well as Spanglish, which tends to resonate with young Latino voters.