California Lost Nearly Half a Million Private-Sector Jobs After Immigration Enforcement Intensified, Report Finds

California lost an estimated 447,000 private-sector jobs between May and September after federal immigration enforcement intensified, according to a new report by the UC Merced Community and Labor Center that links the decline to heightened enforcement actions across the state.

Using U.S. Census Bureau data, researchers found private-sector employment fell by nearly 2.9% over the four-month period, a drop that unfolded rapidly after enforcement activity increased in early summer. The report compares the scale of the losses to those seen during the Great Recession and the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The decline was driven largely by noncitizen workers, according to the findings. Between May and September, nearly 10% fewer noncitizens reported private-sector employment, compared with a much smaller decline among U.S. citizens. By September, overall employment remained well below May levels despite a brief stabilization in August.

The report also found that the effects extended beyond those directly targeted by immigration enforcement. Researchers said workplace raids and arrests exposed gaps in economic protections for workers and produced spillover effects that disrupted businesses, supply chains and local economies.

"The magnitude of the employment shock is historic," the report said, urging state lawmakers to begin planning "a major economic stimulus and disaster package for all workers" affected by enforcement-related disruptions.

The findings reinforce earlier warnings about the broader economic consequences of immigration crackdowns in California. In September, research cited by CNBC from the Bay Area Economic Institute and UC Merced projected that continued deportations and enforcement threats could reduce California's gross domestic product by as much as $278 billion.

Immigrants make up a substantial share of California's workforce, particularly in labor-intensive industries. About 20% of the state's 10.6 million immigrants are undocumented, and sectors such as agriculture, construction and hospitality are especially exposed. Agriculture alone is a $49 billion industry, with immigrants accounting for 63% of farmworkers, while more than 60% of construction workers in California are foreign-born.

National trends suggest similar pressures elsewhere. Preliminary Census Bureau data analyzed by the Pew Research Center show more than 1.2 million immigrants have exited the U.S. workforce this year, contributing to the first nationwide decline in the immigrant population since the 1960s.

The UC Merced report concludes that without policy intervention, continued enforcement could deepen labor shortages and prolong economic disruption across California's economy.