World cocaine production has hit "an all-time high", according to a report published by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) in July.
It found supply, consumption and seizures all peaked in 2023, the most recent year with available data, with production growing by a third compared to 2022.
The report also found that, in the same period, Colombia – the world's largest cocaine producer – saw an estimated 50% increase in the yield from its coca plantations, which provide the raw ingredient used to synthesize cocaine.
In this context, The Latin Times spoke to drug and security experts in Colombia to find out what lies behind the country's cocaine boom and what it means for a nation already struggling with internal security issues.
The UN Report
"The results of the report are not surprising," said Elizabeth Dickinson, Senior Colombia Analyst at International Crisis Group.
She explained that, for years, coca and cocaine production have been on the rise in Colombia and around the world.
"Basically what this report does is confirm those trends," the analyst told The Latin Times.
According to the UNODC, the amount of cocaine seized by authorities worldwide increased by 68% between 2019 and 2023.
While seizures can increase due to different factors – including enhanced law enforcement techniques – other data related to cocaine production, like addiction treatment and drug-related deaths, suggest substantial growth in the illicit market.
As well as supply, the report also highlights growing demand, with the estimated number of cocaine users worldwide increasing from 17 million in 2013 to 25 million a decade later.
"One of the things that this tells us is about the growing consumer markets for this drug," said Dickinson.
The UNODC used wastewater analysis and public surveys to determine cocaine consumption by region. It found that North America, Western and Central Europe, and South America are the largest markets in the world.
It also noted emerging markets in Asia and Africa, including countries like China and Japan, which historically had low cocaine consumption levels.
"Armed and criminal groups have become expert at opening these new markets and sort of not waiting for demand to require the drug but... creating the demand," explained Dickinson.
Coca bush: quality and quantity
Authorities traditionally use satellite and aerial imagery of coca plant coverage to help inform their estimates of the quantity of cocaine production.
The UNODC estimated a 34% increase in global estimated illegal cocaine production from 2022 to 2023.
"This is primarily a reflection of an increase in the size of the area under illicit coca bush cultivation in Colombia," said a passage of the report, estimating a 50% higher yield year-on-year.
Surging coca cultivation can be explained by a range of factors according to Ana María Rueda, Drug Policy Analysis Coordinator at the Colombian Ideas for Peace Foundation.
A key factor is the phasing out of aerial spraying using glyphosate, a technique the government banned in 2015 following reports linking the chemical with increased cancer incidence in human populations.
Not only did coca crops proliferate as a result, but individual plants were able to reach a greater level of maturity and therefore strength.
Both the area covered by coca plantations and the potential yield per hectare have increased, explaining the estimated 50% rise from 2022 to 2023.
The proliferation of coca can also be partly explained by failed government policies.
The 2016 peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) saw the state agree to shift towards a policy of voluntary crop substitution, encouraging farmers to replace coca with legal plants.
President Gustavo Petro, who took office in 2022, was a particular advocate of substitution initiatives. But these programs have enjoyed limited success.
"The development of alternative [crops] has not been implemented in a way that guarantees access to legal products that can replace the coca economy," Rueda explained.
Many farmers in coca-growing areas have little incentive to switch to legal crops, which are often not economically viable.
"If these families do not have a legal alternative product, they must return to [coca]," said Rueda.
Decertification and security concerns
Colombia's record coca and cocaine output will undoubtedly concern policy-makers in Washington.
Since Donald Trump's return to office, Colombia has lived under the specter of decertification, a cold-war era diplomatic tool used by the U.S. to punish nations it deems uncooperative in the war on drugs.
During his first term, Trump threatened to decertify Colombia if it did not curb cocaine production. Since then, coca cultivation and drug exports have grown considerably.
In May, Colombia's Defense Minister Pedro Sanchez warned decertification would only increase trafficking to the United States. But experts say U.S. sanctions may be unavoidable.
"Coca cultivation in Colombia reached a historic peak, along with cocaine, and there is no way for Colombia to reduce coca and cocaine this year," said Rueda, adding that "decertification is almost imminent."
If Washington decertifies Colombia, the country could see immediate cuts of 50% to all aid, the withdrawal of visas from senior officials, new trade tariffs and banking sanctions.
Experts say the move would be disastrous for Colombia, a nation dependent on Washington as both its largest trade partner and aid donor.
"To summarize in a word, the effect of decertification would be devastating," said Dickinson.
The analyst highlighted how military aid cuts by Washington would debilitate Colombia's armed forces as they respond to mounting internal security challenges.
The White House has until September 15, the annual deadline for the U.S. to review drug control cooperation efforts, to decide on decertification.
"The stakes... couldn't be higher," Dickinson concluded.
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