Democrats Could Win Back 11% of Trump Voters by 2028 by Embracing a Populist Economic Agenda, New Study Shows

A new study from the Center for Working-Class Politics (CWCP) and Jacobin claims that Democrats could reclaim up to 11% of Trump voters by 2028 by embracing a populist economic agenda paired with socially moderate messaging.

Analyzing data from major political science surveys—including the American National Election Studies (ANES), the General Social Survey (GSS), and the Cooperative Election Study (CES)—the researchers tracked working-class political attitudes from 1960 to 2022. Their findings challenge the notion that the working class has become irretrievably conservative and offer a clear strategic path for Democrats ahead of the 2028 presidential election.

The most significant takeaway is that 11% of Trump voters hold both economically progressive and socially moderate views. This group, though not large, represents about 5% of the overall electorate. According to the researchers, "even winning back half of that bloc—just over 2% of the electorate—could be enough to swing a close national election."

Furthermore, many of these voters are concentrated in swing states, increasing their electoral importance.

The study also found that working-class Trump voters are more economically progressive than often assumed. Over 20% supported a policy package that included raising the minimum wage, increasing Social Security and public school funding, and even taxing millionaires. For example, 38% backed a higher minimum wage, 59% supported more Social Security spending, and 50% favored increased public school funding.

While working-class voters are less liberal than wealthier Americans on cultural issues, their views have moved leftward over time. The growing gap between them and upper-class voters is driven less by rising conservatism than by the accelerated liberalization of more affluent Democrats. This divergence has created a perception of increased conservatism among the working class, even as their actual views have become more progressive.

The report argues that Democrats cannot afford to write off working-class Trump voters or rely solely on ideological purity. "The path to winning them back," the authors write, "is clear: adopt social populism." That means pairing pro-worker economic proposals with a tone that acknowledges, rather than alienates, moderate cultural views.