Experts Say Strikes on Venezuelan Boats Won't Curb Drug Flow to the U.S.: Report

The U.S. military has killed at least 21 people in recent strikes on small boats off the coast of Venezuela — attacks President Donald Trump says are part of an "armed conflict" with drug cartels. But according to data and experts cited by The New York Times, the operation is unlikely to significantly disrupt the flow of cocaine or fentanyl into the United States, since Venezuela plays only a marginal role in the global drug trade.

Available evidence shows that most cocaine entering the U.S. does not pass through Venezuelan waters. Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia produce nearly all of the world's cocaine, and most of it is trafficked through the Pacific Ocean, not the Caribbean, according to U.S. and U.N. data compiled by NYT.

Fentanyl — now the leading cause of overdose deaths in the United States — is produced almost entirely in Mexico using precursor chemicals imported from Asia, not Venezuela. "The Trump administration has pressed Mexico's government to do more to stop drugs from entering U.S. territory," explains the report, "but former diplomats and regional analysts say that — American claims notwithstanding — the boat strikes off Venezuela appear to have a different aim."

Experts told the news site that the Trump administration's focus on Venezuelan targets may be less about narcotics interdiction and more about political leverage against President Nicolás Maduro, whom Washington considers illegitimate. As The New York Times puts it, the attacks "may instead be intended to put pressure on Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, or end his rule altogether.

"Using military might to take out small trafficking boats," said James Story, the former U.S. ambassador to Venezuela, "is like using a blowtorch to cook an egg." Despite the strikes, trafficking networks are expected to adapt quickly. "Even if the United States achieved limited success," Mr. Story said, "traffickers would regroup."

Still, U.S. officials have portrayed the operation as a major step in curbing smuggling. The Miami Herald reported last week that the military buildup in the Caribbean — which includes eight U.S. warships, a submarine, and thousands of troops — has disrupted maritime routes used by Venezuela's "Cartel de los Soles," an organization Washington accuses Mr. Maduro and senior military figures of running. One source told the outlet, "The Caribbean is totally controlled; not a single boat is leaving."

A White House official said on Tuesday that President Donald Trump is prepared to use "every element of American power" to prevent drugs from entering the U.S.