Goldman Sachs expects emerging markets to lead global equity growth over the next decade, driven largely by India and China, with Latin America also forecast to deliver strong returns.
In a new research report, the bank projected that emerging-market equities will outpace developed markets, with Latin American companies positioned for meaningful gains in earnings performance.
The bank estimates global equities will return an annualized 7.7% in dollar terms over the next 10 years, supported by nominal growth, corporate profitability, and shareholder distributions. But the outlook varies significantly across regions. Goldman Sachs expects emerging-market equities to grow 10.9% per year, compared with 6.5% in the United States, as Bloomberg reports.
Within emerging markets, Latin America is projected to post earnings-per-share growth of 8.4% annually. That places the region behind India (12.6%), South Africa (10.1%), and North Asia (10.0%), but ahead of Southeast Asia (7.5%), China (7.6%), emerging Europe (6.9%), and the Middle East and North Africa (6.2%). "Earnings growth remains the main driver of performance," the report states, adding that dividends will make up the remainder of the total return.
Goldman Sachs also noted that structural reforms, stronger nominal GDP growth, and the broad distribution of AI-related productivity gains across global markets—not concentrated only in the U.S. tech sector—could provide further support. A weakening dollar would also raise dollar-denominated returns abroad, the bank says, recalling that past periods of dollar softness have coincided with stronger performance in international markets.
The report argued that long-term investment strategies should look "beyond the United States" and lean toward emerging markets, citing both return potential and diversification benefits.
The projections coincide with broader regional momentum highlighted in other analyses. A recent McKinsey & Company study found that Latin America has become one of the fastest-moving corporate-venturing environments worldwide, with 76% of new corporate-backed ventures reaching profitability in under two years, compared with 61% globally.
McKinsey attributes the region's performance to companies that repeatedly build and scale new businesses, describing Latin American firms as having "developed a greater institutional muscle for building."
That report also notes that Latin American ventures generate revenue more quickly than peers elsewhere, though often with higher upfront investment. Analysts say the trend challenges long-held assumptions about the region's risk environment and signals growing interest from global firms seeking expansion opportunities.
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