From Medicaid Cuts to Violent Deportations: Trump Policies Are Boosting Democrats' Confidence Ahead of The Midterms

Since their monumental loss in last year's elections, Democrats have been trying to desperately reinvent the party ahead of the 2026 midterms. And even though most polls still show them deep underwater, officials have some reason to be hopeful.

To take back control of Congress, Democrats need to win a handful of elections across the country, and some are believing this possibility is becoming increasingly realistic as MAGA lawmakers continue pivoting to the far-right, in lockstep with the Trump administration.

The odds of winning some of those elections have been increasing, Democrats think. For one, the party just successfully recruited former Gov. Roy Cooper to run for Senate in North Carolina. Likewise, they believe they're getting the right kinds of candidates in the House: people with little connection to D.C. who can criticize both parties.

Further, midterms often favor the party out of power and Democrats have increasingly done better with college-educated voters who also tend to vote more often in non-presidential elections, Axios reports.

But Republicans' actions in Congress and the Executive Branch have also helped Democrats' confidence for next year's election.

For instance, their pillar legislation, the "big, beautiful bill" is polling terribly. Surveys released earlier in July show that the majority of Americans disapproved of the bill.

In a Quinnipiac polling survey released the first week of July, 55% of voters opposed the bill, while only 29% supported it. Similarly, in a Washington Post-Ipsos poll released that same week, 42% of voters opposed the bill "changing tax, spending and Medicaid policies," while only 23% supported it. A Fox News survey showed that 59% of respondents opposed the legislation, while only 38% supported it.

Other moves from the Trump administration are also becoming increasingly unpopular. Deportations, more specifically, are getting blowback after going well beyond violent criminals and gang members, which the president had originally focused on. In fact, polls show Republicans are losing their advantage on the issue, key for them in the 2024 election.

Democrat voters' own enthusiasm to oust Republicans may be another reason why the party feels energized to take back Congress in 2026. A recent CNN poll showed that 72% of Democrats and Democratic-aligned registered voters say they are extremely motivated to vote in next year's congressional election, compared to just 50% of Republicans and Republican-aligned voters who say the same.

But to get to victories in 2026, the party will still need to convince voters they are up for the job, as they are still facing historic rates of unpopularity. A Wall Street Journal poll recently found that only 33% of voters have a favorable view of Democrats and 63% have an unfavorable view— the highest percentage in the Journal's polling back to 1990.

Also, many of the most unpopular cuts in the "big, beautiful bill," such as Medicaid cuts, will not go into effect until 2027, so voters may not feel their effects by the midterms.