'Minority' Population Won't Surpass Whites Until 2046, Says New Census Estimate

A curb in immigration could set back the year in which whites are projected to become the minority in the U.S. when weighed against all groups.

A new census estimate states that whites will not be outnumbered until 2046, three years after a previous estimation, the Associated Press reported Wednesday.

The Census Bureau also altered its findings regarding when the entire U.S. population will break 400 million, pinning the estimate more than a decade after its original guess at 2060.

Still, the Census is sticking with its original projections under the assumption that immigration will continue to go up, an idea that may be stunted in the coming years if the current Senate immigration bill, which would toughen border security, passes.

As a whole, immigration should surpass natural growth, formulated by calculating births minus deaths, by mid-century. This is the first time immigration would surpass natural growth since 1850.

The white minority scenario by the year 2046 is actually but 1 of 3 possible outcomes for the population based on a number of unpredictable factors including the state of the economy, cultural changes, overhauled immigration laws and natural or man-made disasters.

The 2046 estimate assumes the slowed pace of immigration, allowing 700,000 new immigrants annually, continues. The U.S. population is currently set at 315 million people with less than 64 percent being non-Hispanic whites.

In the next half-century, also assuming immigration levels remain constant, the population would break down as follows: 44.7 percent white, 12.7 percent black, 7.5 percent Asian and 29 percent Hispanic.

The 65-and-older age range is also expected to rise above the under-18 age group in 2038. The new prediction states that this will happen in 2056.

Regardless, the U.S. is slowly becoming a nation where its median age is rising and births are decreasing, and could soon join the ranks of Italy and Japan with near-stagnant natural population growth.

"As a whole, the U.S. population is projected to grow more slowly, the older population is expected to grow much larger, and the minority population will grow faster," said Jennifer Ortman, a Census Bureau demographer, told the AP. "Most of the immigrants coming into the U.S. population are roughly 15 to 45 years old, so we see that immigration is bolstering the working-age population and helping it to grow."

The course of immigration is a hot button issue when it comes to population growth, with demographers predicting a slight rise in Asian immigrants of all measures to secure U.S. borders are approved considering it would likely drastically shift the numbers of people who cross illegally.

Should the immigration rate accelerate, the "tipping point" for a white minority would be cut back by five years, arriving in 2041.

The three population predictions all unanimously share one commonality, which is the rise in the 65-and-older age group to make up as high as 20 percent of total population.

Despite the aging population, demographers say that the U.S. will significantly diversify as the years pass.

"Despite projected declines in fertility, these projections make plain that we are on the road to becoming a highly diverse nation," said William H. Frey, a Brookings Institution demographer. "Even under the lowest immigration assumptions, the nation will become minority white in 33 years. So those who believe that barring immigration will make the nation appreciably less diverse need to take heed of these projections."