The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78)
The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), a nuclear-powered supercarrier which is the largest aircraft carrier in the world, is being deployed to the Caribbean. Photo by Jaime REINA / AFP

A retired Venezuelan military officer warned that the country's armed forces would abandon President Nicolás Maduro if the United States launches military action, as Washington expands its regional operations and rejects a new proposal from Maduro to leave power after a two-year delay.

José Antonio Colina, a former member of the Venezuelan armed forces and president of the exile organization Veppex, told NTN24 that "Maduro has no capacity to negotiate with the United States at this moment, except for his immediate exit from power."

Colina also argued that Washington would not accept Maduro's departure unless it also included the removal of senior official Diosdado Cabello, as NTN24 reports. He cautioned that the regime is attempting to mislead U.S. officials through talks he described as a delaying tactic. "Historically, in the 20 negotiations that have existed, the regime has never fulfilled anything it commits to. Its objective is to buy time to stay in power," he said.

He then said that any U.S. military action would fracture Maduro's support within the armed forces:

"Venezuelan soldiers will not sacrifice themselves for Nicolás Maduro. If there is any kind of military action, that will mark the point at which the military will do nothing, will turn against Maduro, and will stop being the mechanism that keeps him in power"

The comments echo assessments made by other retired Venezuelan officers who, in late October, told the Miami Herald that an armed conflict with the United States "would be suicide." Those officers said the Venezuelan military's operational capacity had fallen to between 33% and 35%, that most aircraft are unable to fly, and that only a limited number of naval vessels and fighter jets remain functional. They described shortages of technicians, spare parts, and a communications network that has "practically collapsed."

As these assessments have circulated, U.S. military activity in the region has intensified. On Monday, Trinidad and Tobago confirmed that exercises with the U.S. Marine Corps' 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit had begun and would continue at least until this Friday. This week, the New York Times also reported that President Donald Trump has approved CIA plans for covert operations inside Venezuela while authorizing back-channel discussions with the Maduro government.

Colina said these developments reinforce the likelihood that the armed forces will not defend the government. "This moment would mark the beginning of the end," he said.

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