One of the factors that sped up the diplomatic break between the United States and Venezuela, which led to the current U.S. military force deployed to South American waters in recent weeks, has been Washington's fractured relationship with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who has been in power since 2013.
While the Trump administration and its senior officials claim the military campaign is aimed at targeting drug-trafficking cartels and stopping shipments headed to the United States, a new report says former and current officials have privately discussed that the operation's real endgame is to replace Maduro.
For weeks, Trump has suggested the situation has reached a point of no return, even hinting that Maduro's days in office are numbered. According to a new report by The New York Times, whoever replaces Maduro would depend on how he leaves power, since each scenario could produce a different succession path.
As the outlet notes, the first person in line to replace Maduro under the Venezuelan Constitution would be Delcy Rodríguez, who has served as vice president since 2018.
Despite being next in line, Rodríguez's rise would be weakened by what experts describe as Maduro's election theft last year, as opposition leaders argue Maduro and all his executive appointees are corrupt.
She would be required to call new elections, though the timing would depend on when Maduro steps down, the New York Times reported.
Considered Maduro's right hand, Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello could also make a credible claim to power.
A retired lieutenant close to former President Hugo Chávez, the New York Times' report highlights Cabello as one of the biggest political winners of Trump's pressure campaign, which sidelined Cabello's more moderate rivals who favored an economic and diplomatic truce with the United States.
In recent months, Cabello has used his frequent public appearances and TV show "Con el Mazo Dando" to attack opponents and rally governing-party loyalists against what he calls a foreign threat.
Although widely influential within Maduro's inner circle, the outlet argues that Cabello's strong sway inside Venezuela's security forces has made it harder for Maduro to exit without risking a military coup, political analysts say.
Two more Maduro allies are seen by experts as potential successors if he steps down or is forced out.
One is Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly and the older brother of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez.
According to the New York Times, Rodríguez has represented Maduro for years in talks with the United States, including in negotiations with the Trump administration this year.
As the head of Congress, Rodríguez could claim political legitimacy in a transition, some constitutional experts say. Others disagree, arguing he should have no role because the parliamentary elections were not free or fair.
Finally, Venezuela's highest-ranking military officer, Gen. Vladimir Padrino López, could also be tapped as a successor, given his longstanding role in helping the regime suppress anti-government protests.
Padrino López has no formal path to the presidency. But the military's central role in Venezuelan politics means he could play a decisive part in any transition, analysts and people close to the Venezuelan government told the outlet.
Venezuela's opposition
Two of the most likely candidates to succeed Maduro if the situation deteriorates further come from Venezuela's opposition.
One of them is María Corina Machado, who won the opposition primary by a wide margin but was barred from appearing on the ballot by the Maduro government.
After she was blocked from running, the opposition selected Edmundo González, a retired diplomat with little national profile, to take her place in the presidential race.
Machado's push to reshape Venezuela's political landscape earned her the Nobel Peace Prize earlier this year. She has also repeatedly argued that military intervention may be necessary to bring change to the country and has backed President Trump's pressure campaign on Maduro.
González's electoral win gives him the strongest legal claim to the presidency, experts say. But his limited political network could make it difficult for him to hold on to power during the volatile period that would likely follow a transition, according to those interviewed by the New York Times.
Both Machado and González remain in hiding, with Machado hiding inside Venezuela and González living in exile in Spain.
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