U.S. Can't Dislodge Guerrillas From Venezuela's Gold and Coltan Flow, Experts Say: 'They Understand Mining Is the Future'

Armed guerrilla groups entrenched in southern Venezuela continue to control vast gold and coltan deposits despite Washington's efforts to reshape the country's political and economic landscape after Nicolás Maduro's capture on January 3, according to a new report.

The Trump administration has signaled interest in accessing Venezuela's critical minerals, including gold and coltan—used in cellphones and electric vehicles—as part of a broader strategy to reduce reliance on China. But experts warn that the mineral-rich states of Bolívar and Amazonas remain dominated by the National Liberation Army (ELN) and dissident factions of Colombia's former FARC guerrillas.

"At the moment, I don't see how that's possible," Elizabeth Dickinson of the International Crisis Group told the WSJ of any U.S. attempt to remove the armed groups. "The criminal groups understand that mining is the future." Unlike drugs, she added, gold and coltan are "not illegal, and it's extremely easy to launder."

Miners and local residents say guerrillas collect between 10% and 20% of gold extracted and operate as de facto authorities, imposing rules and coordinating with elements of Venezuela's security forces. "The guerrillas control everything," said Wilson Torres, a longtime miner to the news outlet.

The current dynamics reflect alliances that date back decades. Investigations by InSight Crime document how Venezuela under Hugo Chávez offered Colombian guerrillas sanctuary and logistical platforms. After the 2016 FARC peace accord, dissident factions and the ELN deepened ties with military and political figures in what U.S. prosecutors have described as the "Cartel of the Suns," a corruption network inside the Venezuelan state.

The ELN in particular consolidated control over cocaine corridors and illegal mining zones along the 2,200-kilometer Colombia-Venezuela border. Analysts say the group's operational flexibility and relationships with sectors of the Venezuelan military reduce the likelihood of rapid disruption.

Since Maduro's removal, Colombian officials report stepped-up operations along the border affecting the strategies used by guerrilla groups. Defense Minister Pedro Sánchez told France 24 in early February that some ELN members "no longer feel safe" and have shifted positions, allowing Colombian forces to act. Intelligence cooperation between Bogotá and Washington is expanding, he added, though U.S. troops will not deploy.

Still, experts caution that while pressure may alter movements, dismantling the networks controlling Venezuela's mineral flow remains unlikely. "I don't see a major threat to the ELN in the current Venezuelan scenario," security analyst Luis Fernando Celis told InSight Crime.