Are Cities with Large Latino Populations Among Those With Higher Gun Violence in the U.S.?

A new report from the Center for American Progress Action Fund's (CAP) gun violence prevention team found that the cities with the most gun violence are in states that have elected Republican leaders. The top five cities with the highest homicide rates were the St. Louis, Missouri, Birmingham, Alabama, New Orleans, Louisiana and Baltimore, Maryland. Only this last one is in a Democratic state.

The way that CAP measured whether a city was Republican or Democrat was through data from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab. They determined whether a city was considered Republican or Democrat by the 2020 election results of their state. Therefore, although New Orleans is primarily a Democrat-voting city, Louisiana is a Republican state, so New Orleans classifies as Republican.

2022 Top Five Highest Gun Homicide Rates in Latino Majority Cities Versus Top Five Overall

Los Angeles, California, a city which according to census data is 49% Latino, had a gun homicide rate of 5.3 per 100,000, while St. Louis' figures were of 76.4 per 100,000.

The city with the second highest Hispanic or Latino population is Houston, Texas, a Republican city, where 44.5% of the population is Hispanic or Latino. Houston had a gun homicide rate of 22 per 100,000. whereas Birmingham's was 74.3 per 100,000.

The city with the third highest Hispanic or Latino population is San Antonio, Texas, a Republican city, where 65.7% of the population is Hispanic or Latino. San Antonio had a gun homicide rate of 11.4 per 100,000, 166 deaths overall. For New Orleans, third in the overall ranking, had a homicide rate of 65.3 per 100,000 residents or 245 gun homicides.

The city with the fourth highest Hispanic or Latino population is Phoenix, Arizona, a Democrat city where 42.7% of the population is Hispanic or Latino. Phoenix had a gun homicide rate of 12.1 per 100,000. In Jackson, the homicide rate was of 64.7 per 100,000 residents or 97 gun homicides.

The city with the fifth highest overall Hispanic or Latino population is El Paso, Texas, a Republican city where 82.9% of the population is Hispanic or Latino. El Paso had a gun homicide rate of 3.1 per 100,000 or 21 deaths. Baltimore had a gun homicide rate of 49.8 per 100,000 residents.

Higher Rates of Gun Deaths and Gun Homicides in Republican States

The analysis conducted by CAP found that, from 2015 to 2022, cities in Democrat states saw an average gun homicide rate of 7.23 per 100,000 residents, while cities in Republican states saw a rate of 11.1 per 100,000 residents—53 percent higher than the rate in Democrat cities. In Addition to a higher rate of gun homicides, according to the CAP report, there were 27% more accidental gun deaths in Republican states than in Democrat states.

Lower deaths in states with Gun Safety Bills

According CAP, from 2019 to 2021, the U.S. saw the most significant two-year increase in homicides ever recorded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. CAP said gun homicides almost entirely drove this.

To combat this, CAP noted that policymakers in states such as Oregon, New Jersey, and 19 others—of which 15 were blue states—plus Washington D.C., passed a combined 91 gun safety bills in 2022 alone. CAP also said that according to the Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence's annual state scorecard, the states with the strongest gun laws consistently have the lowest rates of gun violence.