DHS Secretary Touts Report Claiming 1.6 Million Migrant Decline, But Its Own Authors Warn It May Be Overstated

Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Thursday that roughly 1.6 million undocumented immigrants have left the United States since Trump took office, citing a report from the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS). However, CIS itself warned the number may overstate the actual decline, citing factors ranging from incomplete data to fear provoked on respondents by the administration's heightened enforcement.

"In less than 200 days, 1.6 MILLION illegal immigrants have left the United States population," Noem wrote on social media. "This means safer streets, taxpayer savings, pressure off of schools and hospital services and better job opportunities for Americans. Thank you, President Trump!"

DHS said in a statement that the figure includes both self-deportations, incentivized with free travel and a $1,000 stipend, and enforcement actions through ICE and CBP. The agency also credited "an international, multimillion-dollar ad campaign warning illegal aliens to LEAVE NOW because if they don't, we will arrest them and deport them."

However the report from the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), which describes itself as a "low immigration" advocate, comes with a few very notable caveats. First off, the report notes that heightened enforcement may make immigrants less likely to respond to surveys:

"Given recent stepped-up enforcement efforts, it is possible that the observed decline in the foreign-born was due, at least in part, to a greater reluctance by immigrants to participate in the survey or to identify as foreign-born"

Furthermore, the report, based on the government's Current Population Survey, also flagged incomplete administrative data for July 2025, "further increasing uncertainty of our estimate of illegal immigrants." Ultimately, the report concludes that "all this should be kept in mind when interpreting the figures presented."

Experts say that, given the caveats, the number provided by DHS carry significant uncertainty. Julia Gelatt of the Migration Policy Institute told The Hill that the fear factor in particular is reason enough to doubt the tally:

"We know the government is sharing Medicaid and food stamps and other data with [U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement] (ICE) and so answering a government survey may feel particularly perilous right now for someone who doesn't have firm legal status"

Gelatt added that "if immigrants respond to those surveys at lower rates, that's going to look like a drop in immigrant population even if the same number of people are still here – they're just more afraid to talk to people affiliated with the government."

The Trump administration said in April that it had deported 135,000 people, though analysis by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) suggested the actual number was closer to 72,000, saying the figures were "gross exaggerations."