Political betters on the gambling site PredictIt are putting their money on South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley as she prepares to go on camera for the Republican rebuttal of Barack Obama’s final State of the Union address. There are a few caveats. PredictIt isn’t a very high-volume trading floor, with daily trades for the VP spot in the mid to low hundreds. Also, users can short. I made a bet on Haley based on the performance I thought she’d give tonight (not revealing my secrets here!). If I’m right, I’ll sell back my bet and take the short-term gains without the long-term risk.
In other words, PredictIt odds are about what a candidate’s odd are right now. That could explain why Donald Trump, for example, is trading around 40 percent for the Republican nomination, even though the smart money like Fivethirtyeight has pegged him in the single digits.
Despite the financial incentive, PredictIt might not be the smartest money in the room. For example, Donald Trump has attracted enough betters to get a 40 percent chance at the Republican nomination. That flies in the face of the smart, data-heavy analysis of pundits like Nate Silver .
Haley has a 25 percent chance of securing the VP slot, according to wagerers, beating out nearly 20 other leading figures in the GOP. Those competitors include including presidential candidates such as Ted Cruz, John Kasich and Marco Rubio, whose chances ran around 13 percent ahead of the address.
Haley, who is Indian American, released prepared remarks ahead of her oral remarks. In them, she highlighted her heritage and delivered a very un-Trump like message on immigrant’s role in American life. In fact, her choice for the task signals a bet or perhaps a plea by the RNC against the Trump tide.
"I am the proud daughter of Indian immigrants who reminded my brothers, my sister and me everyday how blessed we were to live in this country [....] My story is really not much different from millions of other Americans. Immigrants have been coming to our shores for generations to live the dream that is America,” Haley plans to say, according to an advance copy of her remarks, released in advance by Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wi.)
Haley is also the polar opposite from Donald Trump on terms of political correctness. When controversy erupted over the Confederate flag in 2015, she led the removal of the cloth from official state property. She’s not an “angry voice,” as she explains below.
“Today, we live in a time of threats like few others in recent memory. During anxious times, it can be tempting to follow the siren call of the angriest voices. We must resist that temptation. No one who is willing to work hard, abide by our laws, and love our traditions should ever feel unwelcome in this country," she says, according to the advance remarks.
Will PredictIt better like or loath Haley’s speech? We’ll update this article tomorrow and let you know how the gamblers reacted to her first walk on the national stage.
What did you think of Haley’s speech? Let us know if you’d put money on her as a VP nominee.
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