Peru goes back to the polls this Sunday, June 7, for a presidential runoff that has kept pollsters, analysts, and voters on edge since April. The matchup between conservative veteran Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza Popular) and left-wing challenger Roberto Sánchez (Juntos por el Perú) was always expected to be tight — and the final stretch of surveys confirms it: this race is still very much up for grabs.
What the Polls Are Saying
The most recent surveys point in the same direction: Fujimori leads, but just barely.
The last publishable Ipsos poll, conducted for Perú 21, shows Fujimori at 38% and Sánchez at 35% — a three-point gap that falls within the margin of error. A mock ballot exercise run alongside the same survey yielded similarly tight results.
An IEP survey for La República, conducted between May 22 and 26 among 1,204 adults, places Fujimori at 36% and Sánchez at 30% — a six-point gain for the Fuerza Popular candidate compared to April polling, while Sánchez dropped two points.
A Datum Internacional survey for América TV put Fujimori at 39.5% versus Sánchez at 36.1%, with a difference of 3.4 points — again within the 2.8% margin of error.
The most recent CPI poll, conducted between May 26 and 28 in urban and rural areas across 19 departments, shows Fujimori at 32.5% nationally versus 29.1% for Sánchez — with a striking 22.6% saying they plan to vote blank or null, and 13.4% still undecided.
That last figure is the wildcard. With over a third of the electorate either undecided or planning to spoil their ballot, Sunday's result could hinge on last-minute decisions — especially in Lima, the sierra, and the rural south, where geographic preferences diverge sharply between the two candidates.
A Deeply Divided Map
Fujimori holds a dominant lead in Lima and Callao (48.8%) as well as the north, while Sánchez leads in the center, south, and jungle regions. The divide reflects Peru's chronic urban-rural, coast-highland tension — and both campaigns know it.
The main reason cited by voters of both candidates for their choice is the candidates' proposals (33% for Fujimori, 26% for Sánchez), but also the desire to prevent the other candidate from winning — cited by 23% of Fujimori voters. The anti-vote is, once again, a defining feature of Peruvian electoral politics.
The Stakes on Sunday
As we reported in May, this is Fujimori's fourth attempt at the presidency — having lost razor-thin runoffs in 2011, 2016, and 2021. Sánchez, meanwhile, enters the final stretch as a champion of Peru's rural interior, promising to free imprisoned ex-president Pedro Castillo and convene a constituent assembly.
Fear is a factor on both sides: 45% of respondents say they are concerned Peru would suffer a serious setback if Sánchez wins, compared to 38% who say the same about a Fujimori victory.
What's clear is that Sunday's vote will be decided at the margins — by voters in swing regions, by those who left the first round voting for Rafael López Aliaga and must now choose, and by the undecided millions who will walk into the booth still uncertain. Analysts note that Sánchez must consolidate support in the south, jungle, and central highlands while Fujimori banks on Lima's weight — a capital that alone can tilt a national result.
Peru has been here before. And history suggests the outcome won't be known until the very last vote is counted.
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