Sheinbaum's Cooperation With U.S. Could Backfire After El Mencho's Killing, Analyst Says: 'I Don't Know If She Wanted to Go as Far'

The killing of Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes could carry broader consequences, including renewed scrutiny about the security policy under President Claudia Sheinbaum and her willingness to meet the demands of President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly called on Mexico to step up its fight against organized crime.

The White House noted that the military operation to capture El Mencho was carried out with U.S. intelligence support, while Mexican forces executed the ground operation. Experts in a new report published by The New York Times argue the killing of El Mencho highlights a shifting dynamic between Sheinbaum and Trump.

"The pressure that Trump has put on her administration has been a force she's taken advantage of," said Carlos Bravo Regidor, a Mexican political analyst who studies U.S.-Mexico relations. "She wanted to change Mexico's security, but Trump came at a very interesting moment to push her in that direction."

Bravo went on to say that following Trump's demands could be a double-edged sword for Sheinbaum, whose government has had to confront roadblocks, killings and other fallout from the operation.

"I don't know if she wanted to go as far as she's going," he added. "This is clearly putting her administration under a lot of stress, and there is a big question now about the Mexican state's capacity to manage the consequences of this operation."

Following the military operation in Caracas that captured Venezuela's authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro, Trump raised the prospect of launching ground operations against cartels inside Mexico, a proposal Sheinbaum has categorically rejected time and time again in recent months.

On Monday, she again spelled out the boundaries of U.S. involvement. "There is no participation of U.S. forces," she told reporters. "The understanding with the United States is based primarily on the exchange of intelligence."

That cooperation remains in place. Over the past year, both governments have continued coordinating through intelligence-sharing task forces operating out of Arizona.

The group, made up of about 300 military and civilian personnel, examines cartel leadership, logistics and financial networks, passing along findings to Mexican authorities. According to the report, the task force played a role in supporting the raid on El Mencho.

Additionally, the New York Times reported that the United States directed $3.6 billion toward joint security efforts with Mexico between 2008 and 2023.

John Feeley, a senior U.S. diplomat in Mexico from 2009 to 2012, told the outlet things seem to be changing between Mexico and the U.S. "The big difference always was that we never had full buy-in from the Mexicans," he said. The recent results, he added, "show that, with Mexico at least, the United States needed to bring more pressure to bear to create the moment of political will."