Trump Overtakes Biden and Goes on the Lead Among Latino voters, According to a New Poll

Former President and likely Republican candidate for the 2024 elections Donald Trump seems to have made significant gains among Latino voters during the past month, according to a new CNBC poll.

Concretely, the CNBC All-America Survey released Tuesday shows Trump with a 5-point lead over current President Joe Biden. It is the first time the former President is ahead in such a poll over his likely competitor in next year's elections.

The figure is also significant considering that the latest poll of the kind, published in October, saw Biden with a 7-point lead over Trump.

The survey adds that Biden's performance with Latino voters is not just lagging relative to Trump — "it is trending downward overall." "In December 28% of Latino adults approved of Biden as president, down from 35% in October," says the study.

Among all respondents, the survey showed Trump with a 48-42 lead over Biden, a wider margin compared to October's 46-42.

The survey shows an acceleration of a trend that has been apparent for years in polls analyzing the evolution of Latinos' political stances.

Trump has been steadily gaining support with the Latino electorate during the past decade, increasing from 28% in 2016 to 36% in 2020, according to the Pew Research Center. In 2022, Republicans got 39 percent of the Latino vote, the highest percentage since 2004.

CNBC argues that while Latinos have traditionally aligned with Democrats' more progressive policies, the economy is set to play a critical role in next year's elections. And there, Trump has a clear lead.

A recent survey by UnidosUS showed that inflation, the labor market and the economy are currently the biggest concerns for this demographic.

Over half of the respondents stated that elected officials need to address the rising cost of living. They also mentioned being worried about being laid off and about unsafe working conditions.

Immigration remains an important issue for Latinos, but not as important as it once was. According to the survey, they support citizenship pathways for Dreamers and long-term immigrants; however, only 20% of respondents noted that immigration was their biggest concern.

The figure is sizably smaller than the 42% of registered Latino respondents from a 2014 Pew Research survey who noted that immigration was their biggest concern. It could also help explain Trump's gains among Latinos despite his hardline comments on the issue, even saying on different occasions that migrants "poison the blood of our country."

Other research has also shown the growing disconnect with Latinos and the Democratic Party, and a Brookings Institute survey found that 37% of Latinos believe that Biden and the Democrats don't care about the Hispanic community.