Brazil's Bolsonaro, a Trump Ally, Sentenced to 27 Years for Coup Attempt but May Still Avoid Prison

A little over a month after Brazil's Supreme Court ordered Jair Bolsonaro to remain under house arrest, the former president and a Donald Trump ally was convicted of attempting to orchestrate a coup to stay in power after losing the 2022 presidential election. However, he may never set foot inside a prison.

Although four of the five justices on Brazil's highest court voted to convict him and sentenced him to more than 27 years in prison, Bolsonaro is not expected to be taken into custody immediately. The ruling marks the first time a former Brazilian president has been found guilty of trying to overturn an election result.

Prosecutors accused Bolsonaro of attempting to illegally hold onto power after now-President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was declared the winner in 2022. He was charged with attempting a coup, participating in an armed criminal organization, and attempting the violent abolition of the democratic rule of law.

According to prosecutors, Bolsonaro led a criminal organization that plotted to overturn the election and even planned the assassinations of President Lula and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who presided over the case.

Evidence presented during the trial by the attorney general showed that between 2021 and January 2023, Bolsonaro held meetings with Cabinet members and military officials to discuss an emergency decree that would have annulled the election results.

Prosecutors said he justified the plan by promoting baseless claims of electoral fraud, including casting doubt on Brazil's electronic voting system. He also allegedly supported the January 8, 2023, riots in Brasília, which sought to trigger a military takeover.

Bolsonaro, 70, has limited options for appeal. His legal team has argued the sentence was excessive and claimed irregularities in the legal process. According to PBS, his lawyers plan to appeal and are considering bringing the case before international courts.

Under Brazil's judicial rules, an appeal that could overturn a conviction requires at least two dissenting votes from the panel. Since only one of the five justices voted to acquit Bolsonaro, his defense is now expected to seek a reduced sentence or request that he serve time under house arrest.

Trump and Marco Rubio's reactions

Donald Trump sharply criticized the Brazilian Supreme Court's decision to sentence Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years and three months in prison for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. He called the verdict "very surprising" and said he "thought he was a good president of Brazil." Trump also drew parallels between Bolsonaro's case and his own legal challenges in the U.S., arguing that what Bolsonaro faced was similar to what he believes he has been subjected to.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio denounced the ruling as part of what he called a "witch hunt," especially targeting Justice Alexandre de Moraes and other members of Brazil's Supreme Court. Rubio wrote on X that the court's actions amount to political persecution. He also vowed that the United States would "respond accordingly" to what he views as unjust treatment of Bolsonaro

What's next for Bolsonaro?

A prominent and polarizing figure in Brazilian politics, Bolsonaro will remain under house arrest while his legal team pursues appeals. As reported by the Associated Press, the court has up to 60 days to formally publish the ruling. Once released, Bolsonaro's team will have five additional days to file motions for clarification.

His lawyers say they intend to appeal both the conviction and the sentence before the full 11-member Supreme Court, though experts believe the chances of success are slim.

"It's unlikely, but not impossible, that there will be appeals to the full Supreme Court," Rafael Mafei, a lawyer and professor at the University of São Paulo and ESPM, told the AP. "But of course, the defense will try, as they should," he added.

According to the court's press office, an appeal to the full bench is only allowed if at least two justices dissented. In Bolsonaro's case, only one justice voted in favor of acquittal.

As a former president, Bolsonaro is entitled to special incarceration. If the sentence is upheld, he could serve time in a federal police facility, a military installation, or Papuda, a penitentiary in Brasília.