James Talarico Beating Jasmine Crockett By Five Points In Final Poll Ahead Of Texas Democratic Primary

State Rep. James Talarico is beating Rep. Jasmine Crockett ahead of Texas' Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate, according to a the final poll before the election.

Conducted by Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media, it showed Talarico getting 52% of the prospective vote, compared to Crockett's 47%.

The organization noted that support for Talarico increased by five percentage points compared to the previous survey. It was conducted among 850 likely voters in the Democratic primary. It had a margin of error of +/- 3.3%.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said Talarico "holds a sizable advantage among voters who voted early, 58% to 41%, while Crockett leads the Election Day vote, 50% to 39%, suggesting the outcome will depend on which group shows up in larger numbers by the end of Tuesday."

The poll went on to note that Talarico holds a lead with Latino voters, getting 60% of the support, compared to Crockett's 39%. She, in turn, has a large lead among Black voters: 80% to 18%,

Talarico also held a lead in another recent poll. It was shared by JT Ennis, a spokesman for Talarico. It showed that the lawmaker had a 4-point advantage before his interview with Stephen Colbert, which stirred controversy after not being aired on the late show television. Talarico claimed it was the Trump administration who blocked the airing of the interview and called it "the most dangerous kind of cancel culture."

Conducted by Impact Research among 800 likely voters in the Democratic primary, the survey showed Talarico getting 47% of the support, compared to Crockett's 43%. 9% of respondents said they were undecided.

The poll noted that the results were a 21-point net shift to Talarico from the organization's previous poll in early December, when Crockett had 52% of the support compared to the state lawmaker's 35%. It took place between February 10 and 12 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.

The pollster went on to claim that "Talarico also enjoys a huge advantage on electability." "Democratic primary voters think Talarico has a better chance of defeating the Republican Senate nominee than Crockett by a 25-point margin (47% Talarico / 22% Crockett). This represents a 21-point net gain for Talarico on this metric since December, when he led by just 4 points," it added.

The survey stands in contrast with another recent one showing Crockett in the lead by more than 10 points. The survey, conducted by pollsters at the University of Texas' Texas Politics Project, showed Crockett getting 56% of the support, compared to Talarico's 44%. It was conducted between February 2 and 16 among 369 voters and has a margin of error of +/-5.1 points. Both candidates had positive favorability ratings (Crockett +10 and Talarico +18).