Jair Bolsonaro Begins 27-Year Prison Sentence In Brazil Over Failed Coup Plot

Former President Jair Bolsonaro was ordered by Brazil's Supreme Court on Tuesday to begin serving a 27-year sentence related to a failed coup plot following the 2022 presidential elections.

Bolsonaro is reportedly being held in preventive detention at the Federal Police headquarters in Brasília after being taken off of house arrest following an alleged attempt to remove his ankle monitor. Bolsonaro has claimed "hallucinations" related to medication he is taking made him attempt to remove the device – claims the Brazilian Supreme Court rejected.

Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes said that all appeals by Bolsonaro's legal team have been exhausted.

Bolsonaro's allies in Congress released statements criticizing the measure while simultaneously pushing an amnesty law in Congress, which could ease sentences for people convicted of crimes related to the January 8, 2023 attacks on Brazil's government headquarters. On that day, supporters of Bolsonaro sought to overturn election results by storming the National Congress, Supreme Court and Presidential Office, causing millions of dollars in damage.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who defeated Bolsonaro in the 2022 elections, commented on his former opponent's case during the G20 Summit saying, "everybody knew" what his predecessor did and that the decisions from the Judiciary must be respected.

Along with former ministers and high-ranking military officers involved in the plot, Bolsonaro was sentenced in September to 27 years and three months in prison for his role in the attempted coup. The plan included killing Lula, his Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, as well as Justice de Moraes.

In September, the U.S. government sanctioned de Moraes and his family for "weaponizing courts" against Bolsonaro, an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Leadership vacuum inside Brazil's far-right

This was not Bolsonaro's first conviction. In 2023, Brazil's Supreme Electoral Court ruled that the former president committed abuse of political power by using mass communication to spread fake news about Lula during the campaign.

That ruling barred Bolsonaro from running for any political office until 2030.

Since then, discussions within power circles on Brazil's political right have focused on who could take over the power vacuum left by Bolsonaro's absence. (Bolsonaro, 70, also reportedly suffers from medical issues stemming from a 2018 stabbing).

Brazil will hold presidential elections in October 2026, and the former president's imprisonment only increases the pressure for the right to choose a challenger to face Lula, who wants to run for reelection, next year, Yuri Sanches, the head of Political Risk at Atlas Intel, told Latin Times.

Sanches added that Bolsonaro too could benefit from supporting a strong right-wing candidate to defeat Lula, in that it "makes it possible for him to be pardoned" by an ally.

Cristiano Noronha, a political scientist and vice president at political analysis firm Arko Device, told Latin Times that Bolsonaro's preventive detention was a surprise and also puts pressure on who should be his chosen replacement.

Some potential candidates include São Paulo 's Governador Tarcísio de Freitas, his sons, Eduardo and Flávio Bolsonaro, and even his wife, Michelle, who has never been elected to public office.

"We've seen, practically since he left the presidency, former president Jair Bolsonaro losing, or rather suffering, some setbacks and investigations," said Noronha. "But in any case, it's also impressive how he maintains a very strong percentage of support and popularity among his supporters."

A poll from the Brazilian institute CNT/MDA conducted after Bolsonaro was arrested showed the former right-wing leader with a disapproval rate just higher than Lula's at 43%, while the current president has a disapproval rating of 40.8%. Disapproval of Bolsonaro increased from 40% in September to 43% in November, the data shows.