Leaked U.S. Documents Claim Venezuelan Opposition Is 'More Prepared Than Previously Understood' for Maduro's Ouster

Internal U.S. government documents show indicate that Washington now believes Venezuela's opposition has developed more advanced transition plans than expected in the event President Nicolás Maduro is removed from power.

The documents, reviewed by The Washington Post, cite specific proposals drafted by opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize recipient María Corina Machado, including the creation of task forces to stabilize the country during the first 100 hours and 100 days after Maduro's departure, followed by elections within a year.

According to the reporting, U.S. officials wrote that the opposition "demonstrated greater preparedness than previously understood," even though Machado's team did not share full details for security reasons.

The documents also reference a detailed analysis of the Venezuelan military conducted by the opposition, estimating that only about 20 percent of officers are fully aligned with Maduro and "irredeemable," while the remainder are either opposed to him or nonpolitical. The assessment suggests that a transition would require only a "limited purge" of senior regime figures — "no more than a few dozen."

Machado's camp has previously dismissed concerns that a post-transition government would face instability. In a recent interview with El Mundo she said "90% of Venezuelans want change" and argued that the armed forces largely support a shift toward democratic rule. She also outlined a plan to restore constitutional order, remove Cuban intelligence influence, dismantle illicit economic networks, and open Venezuela to large-scale investment.

The documents obtained by The Post note that the opposition stand by an idea that "cohabitation" with top Maduro officials would not be possible. Machado and opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia would exclude senior regime leaders from any future government, according to the U.S. assessment.

These plans come as the U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean continues and Maduro faces heightened security concerns. Despite the pressure, sources close to his government told The Post he remains convinced exile would be riskier than staying in power unless overthrow appears imminent.

Machado received the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for what the committee called "her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy."