A Look at the Latino Electorate in Nevada Ahead of the Democratic and Republican Primaries

As election season starts to pick up steam in the U.S., state elections in which Latinos will play a key role in tipping the scale are beginning to loom large.

Nevada is the next stop for Republicans and the second in line for Democrats, who will first hold primaries in South Carolina. But on February 8 and 6, respectively, the parties will continue their processes to determine their presidential candidates.

Although it is all but certain that Joe Biden and Donald Trump will feature in a rematch of the 2020 elections, these results help analysts and campaigns reach conclusions about the state of the rate at that certain time and make projections and adjustments going forward.

In this context, the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund released its 2024 Nevada Latino Voter Profile on Thursday. The document delves into the relevance the Latino vote will have in this state, especially considering that they will account for nearly one in every five registered voters in the state.

"Latinos are poised to have a significant impact on the state's congressional elections, including contests that could tip the balance of power in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. Robust voter outreach will be critical to ensuring that every eligible Latino Nevadan registers and casts their ballot," said NALEO Educational Fund CEO Arturo Vargas.

The report also recalled that, "following President Bush's 2004 electoral college victory in Nevada, Latinos helped flip the state to then-Senator Obama in the 2008 general election. "In 2020, polling by CNN suggested that Latinos helped deliver the state to Biden, with Latino voters favoring Biden over Trump by 61% to 35%, compared to white voters favoring Trump over Biden by 56% to 43%.

The document highlights the fact that Nevada has seen tightly contested elections in the past election cycles, with overall margins of less than three percentage points in 2016 and 2020, both of them going the Democrats' way.

The contest is set to be extremely narrow in 2024 as well, with the latest state poll from Emerson College showing former President Donald Trump (47%) with a narrow lead over current head of State Joe Biden (45%).

Different polls and electoral results have shown that many Latino voters have been shifting to the Republican party throughout the past years, no longer voting overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates. In fact, two recent studies published this year even showed former president Donald Trump with a lead over current head of State Joe Biden as the electoral year begins.

A recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University from January showed Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump 39-34% with the Latino demographic. For perspective, the same study indicated that in 2020 Biden received 65% of the support compared to Trump's 32%.

The shift in political views could hold important implications for the upcoming elections, especially considering that Hispanics are the largest multicultural group in the U.S. with over 63 million people and are projected to represent 14.7% of eligible voters in 2024, according to a recent poll from the Pew Research Center.