Critics Say Fear May Be Behind Government Data Showing Immigrant Population Decline Over Past 6 Months: 'Survey Respondents Are Too Scared'

Critics are questioning recent government data showing a decline in the immigrant population across the first six months of the Trump administration, warning that the numbers may not reflect reality, as fear and uncertainty could be keeping immigrants from responding to surveys, potentially skewing official statistics.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) household survey, officially called the Current Population Survey (CPS), showed an unprecedented 2.2 million decline in the total foreign-born or immigrant population (legal and undocumented) between January and July of this year, as USA Today reports.

"Because of the atmosphere – the mass deportation campaigns, the constant announcements – immigrants might be more reticent (to answer)," said Julia Gelatt, associate director of U.S. immigration policy at the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute, to the news outlet.

Gelatt added that it's possible that some survey respondents are now too scared to tell the government whether they or members of their household are immigrants. "They may be afraid to say they are a noncitizen," she concluded.

Furthermore, data collection for the the Current Population Survey surveys 60,000 households every month, tracking fluctuations in population, compared to the less frequent, American Community Survey, which is underpinned by interviews with 2 million households. Since it's smaller, critics say, the former may occasionally overstate or understate population shifts.

As Gelatt explains, the monthly survey "is a really important and helpful tool, but one of its flaws is that it has a small sample size."

Jed Kolko, senior fellow at the nonpartisan Peterson Institute for International Economics, echoed Gelatt's caution when it comes to the numbers provided by Current Population Survey, statin that "there aren't other current data that can corroborate this enormous estimated decline."

"Even with fewer immigrants coming to the U.S. and more people leaving or being deported, an annual rate of 4 million is an extraordinary number that is way outside the range of immigration estimates that leading researchers have made," said Kolko, who served as Undersecretary of Commerce under President Joe Biden.

The limits of the survey are also shared by Steven Camarota, director of research at the right-leaning Center for Immigration Studies, who alluded to them in a lengthy analysis of the data published on Monday on the organization's website:

"Given recent stepped-up enforcement efforts, it is possible that the observed decline in the foreign-born was due, at least in part, to a greater reluctance by immigrants to participate in the survey or to identify as foreign-born"