The next meeting between President Donald Trump and NATO leaders now has an official date: July 7-8 in Ankara, Turkey. But behind the diplomatic preparations, European officials and security experts are increasingly worried that the gathering could become one of the most consequential summits in the alliance's 77-year history.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed this week that Trump will attend the summit despite months of tensions between Washington and several European allies. Rubio described the gathering as potentially one of the most important NATO meetings in years.
Officially, the agenda centers on defense spending, military readiness and NATO's response to growing threats from Russia, Iran and China, reported Reuters. However, many diplomats privately acknowledge that the larger question hanging over the summit is whether the transatlantic alliance can survive another period of deep friction between the United States and Europe.
Trump has repeatedly criticized NATO members for relying too heavily on American military power while failing to invest enough in their own defense. During his second term, he has pushed allies to dramatically increase defense spending and has questioned whether the United States should continue carrying what he describes as a disproportionate share of the alliance's burden.
Those concerns have intensified following disagreements over Iran and the Middle East.
Several European governments refused to support U.S. military operations connected to the recent conflict with Iran, including close allies like Italy and Spain, and resisted requests involving logistical support and regional security measures. Trump publicly expressed frustration with some allies, fueling concerns that another confrontation could erupt during the Ankara summit.
The anxiety inside NATO has become so pronounced that alliance officials have quietly discussed scaling back future summit meetings or even abandoning the practice of annual leader gatherings altogether. Diplomats told Reuters that repeated tensions surrounding Trump's appearances have made some members question whether yearly summits create more political drama than strategic progress.
Still, fears that NATO itself could be dissolved appear overstated.
No formal proposal to withdraw the United States from NATO is currently on the summit agenda. In addition, Congress has previously enacted legislation making it more difficult for any president to unilaterally withdraw from the alliance. NATO leaders also reaffirmed their commitment to Article 5 collective defense obligations during last year's summit in The Hague.
What is more likely is a fierce debate over money and burden-sharing.
At the 2025 NATO summit, member nations agreed to move toward spending 5% of GDP on defense and security-related investments by 2035, a target strongly championed by Trump. Some countries continue to resist those goals, creating fresh tensions before the Ankara meeting.
European leaders also remain concerned about the future U.S. military presence on the continent after the Pentagon announced plans to reduce troop levels in Germany and continue shifting strategic attention toward Asia and the Middle East.
The significance of the Ankara summit extends beyond NATO's internal disputes. The alliance is simultaneously strengthening forces along its eastern flank, expanding military infrastructure in the Baltics and preparing for potential long-term confrontation with Russia. NATO recently approved new command structures in Estonia and Latvia as part of those efforts.
For supporters of the alliance, the summit represents a test of whether NATO can adapt to a changing security landscape while maintaining American leadership. For skeptics, it may reveal how much strain the transatlantic partnership can withstand.
By the time Trump arrives in Ankara on July 7, the central question may not be what kind of alliance emerges after another high-stakes encounter between Washington and its European partners.
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