Trump and Biden
Joe Biden and Donald Trump AFP

Former President and presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump has heavily trimmed incumbent Joe Biden's lead in the state of New York, a new poll showed, as more Black and Jewish people show their support to the Republican.

According to the survey by Siena College, Biden leads trump by 47% to 39%. The study was conducted among 805 registered voters and has a 4.1% margin of error, meaning the race could be closer or wider.

Exit polling after the 2020 presidential election showed that Trump only had the support of 6% of Black voters, a figure that has climbed to 29% in the Siena survey.

As for Jews, Trump secured 30% of Jewish votes in the last elections. He currently trails Biden by six percentage points, 46% to 52%, as some members of the community have left the incumbent over a perceived wobbling of the policy regarding the Israel-Hamas war and open criticism of the way prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is conducting the war.

Most Republicans, on their end, have expressed staunch support, brushing aside any criticism. What's more, House Majority Leader Mike Johnson led the invitation of Netanyahu to address Congress on July 24.

Trump is overperforming his party in general, with the poll showing "the GOP 15 percentage points behind on the generic congressional ballot (50% to 35%)."

Overall, Biden won New York by 23.1 percentage points in 2020 and by 22.5 percent against Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The trend, however, is not being replicated at a national level. Another recent poll, this one by Fox News, shows Biden has improved his standing against Trump.

Concretely, the survey shows the incumbent with a three percentage-point jump, now leading Trump 50%-48% in a hypothetical two-way race, when Trump led by one percentage point in last month's edition. It also marks the first time Biden is ahead since October of last year-

Biden still holds a lead in a five-race scenario, with a 43%-42% margin over the presumptive GOP candidate. In May, Trump led by three percentage points in this scenario.

The uptick, The New York Post highlights, "coincides with positive views of the economy hitting record-high marks under Biden's presidency." 32% of registered voters said the economy is "excellent" or "good" at the moment. However, this means that over two thirds of respondents still believe things are "not so good" or "poor."

The slight increase in economic confidence could result from positive data on the inflation front: the consumer price index (CPI) cooled in May for the second month in a row, potentially paving the way for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates that are currently at a 23-year-high.

While voters still trust Trump more than Biden on the economic front, the advantage fell from 13 to 5 percentage points in just a month, the survey noted. "There is not a lot of movement in this poll since May, but it is enough to make this a welcome poll for Biden," said Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox News surveys with Republican counterpart Daron Shaw.

The incumbent also saw a large bump on immigration affairs, trimming Trump's advantage by six percentage points (from 15 to 9 in June). Results come shortly after the Biden administration imposed a crackdown on asylum-seeking once the average of daily encounters at the border reaches 2,500.

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