JPMorgan Forecasts a Global Reordering in 2026 With Latin America as a Critical Supplier

JPMorgan Private Bank's latest outlook anticipates a significant restructuring of the global economic landscape by 2026, identifying Latin America — and particularly South America — as an essential supplier of the minerals, energy and commodities that will underpin the next phase of technological, commercial and energy transitions.

The report says the dynamic is driven by geopolitical fragmentation and increasing tensions between the United States and China.

South America "possesses many of the critical inputs on which the global economy depends," the bank writes. Its role, the analysis argues, reflects not only resource abundance but also strategic geography, diversified trade relationships and expanding infrastructure.

Countries across the region have maintained strong commercial ties with both the United States and China, a dual alignment that JPMorgan says has become central as supply chains reconfigure.

The region accounts for about 40 percent of global copper production and 38 percent of global reserves. Chile alone produces 27 percent of the world's copper, a metal it calls essential for artificial intelligence infrastructure. Peru holds the world's largest silver reserves, while Mexico leads global silver production. In lithium, a cornerstone of electric vehicle batteries, Chile and Argentina rank first and third globally. "The artificial intelligence revolution accelerates the need for critical minerals," the bank notes.

Energy supplies further reinforce the region's relevance, as Venezuela continues to hold the world's largest proven oil reserves, while Brazil remains Latin America's top producer and the world's second-largest iron exporter. Argentina has re-emerged as an investment focus due to the potential of its Vaca Muerta shale basin.

Infrastructure improvements — including the Panama Canal expansion, port upgrades in Brazil and sustained investment in railways and highways — position Latin America as a "natural bridge" between Asia and the United States, capable of absorbing part of the global nearshoring shift, the report says.

JPMorgan also examines currency and reserve dynamics in an increasingly fragmented environment. While discussions about de-dollarization continue, the dollar remains dominant, representing 60 percent of global reserves and nearly half of SWIFT transactions. However, the widespread use of the dollar in sanctions has encouraged diversification. Central banks have increased gold purchases by more than 50 percent since 2024, and cryptocurrency market capitalization has surpassed $4 trillion.

The report outlines three investment pillars for the coming years: resilience, security and regional alignment. It identifies opportunities in infrastructure, energy, semiconductors, critical minerals and assets exposed to geopolitical risk. It also expects Federal Reserve rate cuts to support risk assets and extend the current cycle in global equities led by technology.

Elsewhere in the report, JPMorgan reinforces the broader context shaping the 2026 outlook, stating that "the global investment landscape is being shaped by a confluence of macro and structural forces," including policy normalization, shifting capital flows and accelerating innovation driven by artificial intelligence.

It concludes that emerging markets, and Latin America in particular, stand out due to "key advantages in resources and the reorganization of supply chains."