Texas Primaries Hit Record Ad Spending as Early Turnout Outpaces Even Presidential Cycles

The 2026 midterms in Texas are shaping up to be among the most high-profile elections of the year, and with months still to go before voters head to the polls, early turnout has already surpassed that of recent midterm and presidential cycles.

According to The Texas Tribune, more ballots were cast in Texas during the first seven days of early voting than in any comparable election in recent years. As of Feb. 23, more than 665,000 votes had been submitted in person and by mail in the Democratic primary, compared with 593,692 in the Republican primary, based on unofficial figures from the Texas Secretary of State.

"I would tell Democrats that they have every reason to feel optimistic, but that optimism should be interpreted as just meaning that they have a chance," Jeffrey Engle, director of the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University, told The Texas Tribune. "Anyone who thinks that Democrats have a cakewalk to a blue wave is deluding themselves."

While Democrats led Republicans by more than 72,000 votes in the opening week, GOP turnout during that same period outpaced recent midterm primaries and also exceeded participation during the first seven days of the 2020 presidential primaries, according to Secretary of State data cited by The Texas Tribune.

"We know that primaries are what draw the most enthusiastic voters, but by definition, the most enthusiastic voters are a small group," Engle said. "What is going to be most telling about this election on the Republican side ... is Republican apathy."

Texas is scheduled to hold its 2026 primary elections on March 3, when voters will select the candidates who will represent their parties in the November general election. Across the state, a wide range of offices are up for grabs on the ballot, including governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, one U.S. Senate seat and all 38 congressional seats.

The Senate contest has generated particularly intense interest. Ad-tracking firm AdImpact reported that spending and reserved advertising time had surpassed $110 million, the highest total ever recorded for a Senate primary.

"When was the last time the Democrats had a statewide primary where they spent millions of dollars?" Dave Carney, the top political consultant for Gov. Greg Abbott, told The Texas Tribune. "It hasn't happened in my lifetime, and I've been (in Texas) since 1993," he added, arguing that Democratic candidates have embraced a high-profile, competitive campaign and are investing heavily to mobilize voters.

Rep. Jasmine Crockett is leading State Rep. James Talarico by more than 10 points in the Texas Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate, according to a new poll. On the other hand, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn has recently reduced the gap with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Republican primary. The survey, conducted by the University of Texas' Texas Politics Project, shows Paxton leading Cornyn by 36% to 34%. If such results were to hold, Cornyn and Paxton would face off each other in a runoff on May 26.