Cartel Expert Warns of Hydra Effect After El Mencho's Death: 'Cut Off One Head, Another Grows'

The killing of Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as "El Mencho," has triggered immediate violence and raised concerns of a prolonged internal conflict, with one cartel expert warning of a "hydra effect" in which removing a leader only generates new threats.

In an interview with Spanish organization COPE, investigative journalist Antonio Nieto said the aftermath of El Mencho's death could resemble an "infinite war" where "you cut off one head, and new ones grow." Without structural efforts to combat corruption, he added, "there will be no evident change for ordinary people."

Mexican authorities said Oseguera died after being captured in a federal operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco, following intelligence cooperation between Mexico and the United States. His death prompted immediate retaliation forcing Jalisco Governor Pablo Lemus to activate a "code red" as cartel members set vehicles ablaze and blocked highways.

Guadalajara, according to Nieto, was temporarily grounded to a halt. "The city came to a standstill — there were no open stores, no traffic, no public transportation," Nieto said, adding that in Jalisco "nothing happened without the cartel knowing about it."

David Mora, senior Mexico analyst at the International Crisis Group, told BBC Mundo on Tuesday that the city felt like "a ghost town," underscoring the group's territorial control. He said such retaliation is often an initial response, warning that more destabilizing violence could follow as factions compete for control.

"Decapitating Jalisco and killing 'El Mencho' can bring effects that run against President Claudia Sheinbaum's goal of pacifying Mexico," Mora said, adding that targeting top leaders has been tried repeatedly over two decades and "again and again it's been proven it doesn't work," as organizations fragment and adapt.

Nieto outlined two possible scenarios: a reduction in violence if the operation results in a negotiated recalibration, or a fractured cartel fighting across the 28 states where it operates. He also warned that transnational criminal networks with ties to Europe and Spain mean the impact may not remain confined to Mexico.