Cartel Expert Warns Killing 'El Mencho' Could Backfire: 'It's Been Proven Again and Again It Doesn't Work'

The killing of Jalisco Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as "El Mencho," triggered immediate retaliatory violence and could set off a longer cycle of conflict as the cartel and its rivals reposition, according to an expert on cartels.

David Mora, a Mexico senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told BBC Mundo that Guadalajara, the capital of Jalisco, felt like "a ghost town" after the operation. "Empty streets, closed businesses, nobody outside," he said, noting that the aftermath "speaks to the control these organizations can have."

Mexican authorities said Oseguera died on Sunday after being captured in a military operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco, and injured during a firefight. The Defense Ministry said at least six of his security guards were killed and three soldiers were injured.

Soon after news of his death spread, CJNG members launched coordinated attacks across multiple states, torching vehicles to create burning road blockades and setting fire to businesses, including banks, pharmacies and other local storefronts, according to reporting based on official accounts and footage from affected areas.

Mora told BBC Mundo such visible retaliation is often the first phase of a counter-attack. The more destabilizing violence, he argued, may come later as factions compete for control of the markets Oseguera oversaw. "Decapitating Jalisco and killing 'El Mencho' can bring effects that run against President Claudia Sheinbaum's goal of pacifying Mexico."

Mora framed the operation as part of Sheinbaum's more confrontational posture compared with former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's "hugs, not bullets" approach, and as a signal in Mexico's relationship with the United States, where Washington has pressed for stronger action against trafficking networks.

But he warned the underlying strategy remains familiar. Targeting top leaders has been pursued for two decades, he said, and "again and again it's been proven it doesn't work," because organizations often fragment, generating new conflicts rather than disappearing.

He concluded that the impact on drug flows will likely be limited, arguing illicit markets adapt quickly and continue operating even amid leadership shocks.