Democrats Make Inroads in Florida as Trust in GOP Erodes Among Latino Voters: Report

The Republican Party's dominance in the state of Florida seems to be eroding ahead of this year's midterm elections, offering Democrats a chance to win back Latino voters in the state.

Driven by concerns about an economy that is not advancing, prices that keep rising, and aggressive immigration enforcement, these factors are fueling the shift and could complicate the GOP's appeal to many Latino voters in Florida, especially in South Florida, which for years has relied on voters of Cuban and Venezuelan descent to win the state.

According to 50 business leaders, politicians from both parties, and voters who spoke to Reuters, signs of that erosion are already visible.

Ahead of the midterm elections, Democrats flipped a Florida House district in March in an area that includes President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence, a district he won by 11 points in 2024. Similarly, in December, Democratic candidate Eileen Higgins defeated Trump-backed candidate Emilio Gonzalez by a whopping 19 points in the Miami mayoral race.

"I think there is a tremendous opportunity for the Democratic Party to make inroads," said Marta Arnold, 80, who fled the Cuban Revolution with her family the night Fidel Castro took power on January 1, 1959, and who voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 as an independent.

But despite those gains by Democrats, Republican voters, party insiders, and leaders in Miami told Reuters they still face a steep challenge in convincing skeptical voters to change their allegiance.

One issue that may work in Democrats' favor is the aggressive immigration crackdown carried out by the Trump administration since returning to the White House in January 2025. According to Arnold, in South Florida, everyone knows someone who has been "torn away" from the community.

As reported by Reuters, thousands of Cubans were removed from the United States in 2025. At least 1,379 Cubans were sent back to Cuba on deportation flights, and at least 3,753 were sent to Mexico across the southern border, according to data from a Human Rights First report.

For Rep. María Elvira Salazar, a Republican in Florida's 27th Congressional District, which includes most of Miami-Dade County, the Trump administration's aggressive approach to immigration enforcement is a "very big mistake" that could cost Republicans the midterm elections if it does not "course correct."

Despite concerns among GOP members in South Florida, that sentiment is not shared across the national landscape.

"Republicans have earned and will continue to earn Latino voters' support by focusing on what matters most to working families in Florida: lowering the cost of living, safe neighborhoods, good schools, and a secure border," National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Christian Martinez said in a statement to Reuters.

As noted by the outlet, Republicans and the Trump administration have retained support from the Cuban and Venezuelan diaspora thanks to efforts by officials to push for regime change in both countries.

For many Latino voters in South Florida, domestic policies have become more important though. According to a November Pew Research Center survey cited by Reuters, in the first year of Trump's second term, more than two in three Latinos said their situation had worsened over the past year, while about 80 percent said Trump's policies did more harm than good for Latinos.

Martha Arias, an immigration attorney in Miami for nearly 30 years, told Reuters she keeps hearing the same thing from Cuban American families who come to her for help: "I never thought this would happen to me. I regret my vote," she said, referring to families who have had a relative detained and deported by immigration authorities.