John Bolton Says Trump Risks 'Fragmenting His Base' Ahead of Midterms With Strikes On Iran

Former National Security Adviser John Bolton said President Donald Trump's strikes on Iran could further "fragment" his political base ahead of the midterm elections, even as he described the operation as the "most consequential decision" of Trump's presidency.

Speaking to Politico, Bolton warned that the administration may not have fully considered the aftermath of a power vacuum in Tehran, raising the prospect of "a lot of turmoil" and "a lot of bloodshed," as well as disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of global oil supplies flow.

Bolton, who served as Trump's national security adviser from 2018 to 2019 during the president's first term, has long advocated for regime change in Iran. While speaking to the outlet, he questioned whether Trump had planned for the political and security consequences of removing Iran's supreme leader:

"It's just not his pattern or practice to do long-term strategic thinking or to say, "The objective now is regime change." How do we go about it? What are the risks? What are the contingencies? What's plan B? What's Plan C? He just doesn't do that"

At the same time, Bolton reiterated Trump's longstanding opposition to Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon, recalling that withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal was a priority early in the first term. "You cannot allow Iran to get a nuclear bomb," Bolton said, describing that position as consistent over time.

Bolton also pointed to the risk of temporary oil price spikes if instability affects shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. While he said any spike would likely be temporary, he acknowledged the political sensitivity. "He's already at risk of further fragmenting his base," Bolton said, noting that isolationist Republicans may oppose deeper U.S. involvement abroad.

Bolton's recent criticism of the Trump Administration extends beyond Iran. In January, he faulted Trump's handling of Venezuela following Nicolás Maduro's capture, arguing in a New York Times op-ed that allowing figures tied to the previous regime to retain authority was "not regime change." He warned that relying on former insiders such as Delcy Rodríguez risked entrenching authoritarian rule "just without Maduro."

In subsequent interviews, Bolton called the approach a "major mistake" and said stability without democratic transition would leave underlying power structures intact.

Bolton and Trump's relationship ended in a highly publicized split. In his 2020 memoir, The Room Where It Happened, Bolton criticized Trump's decision-making style and described sharp policy disagreements.