ICE Crackdowns Cut Jobs for U.S.-Born Workers as Employers Scale Back Without Immigrant Labor, Study Reveals

Heightened immigration enforcement under the Trump administration is associated with declining employment for both immigrant and U.S.-born workers, according to a new study, challenging claims that stricter policies expand job opportunities for domestic labor.

Researchers from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that in regions experiencing surges in Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activity, employment among U.S.-born men with no more than a high school education fell by 1.3%, while employment among remaining immigrants dropped by an average of 4%.

The study, published May 4 and based on federal labor data and ICE arrest records, found "no evidence that it is benefiting U.S.-born workers," said economist Chloe East of the University of Colorado Boulder. "If anything, job opportunities for U.S.-born workers are going down as a result."

Researchers attribute the decline to both direct and indirect effects. Immigration enforcement removes workers from local economies through detention and deportation, while also creating what the study describes as a "chilling effect," discouraging others from reporting to work.

For every six undocumented workers lost, the study estimates one U.S.-born worker also loses employment, as businesses reduce output or halt projects due to labor shortages.

Industry data and recent reports have outlined the sever effect that enforcement is having on immigrants. In the restaurant sector, where foreign-born workers account for roughly 20% of the workforce, employers say key roles are becoming harder to fill. "Without them, our operation would cease," said Nichole Thomson, a restaurant manager cited in a recent Wall Street Journal report. Executives across major chains have identified low-wage, labor-intensive positions such as dishwashing as among the most difficult to staff.

Agriculture is facing comparable constraints. Farmers warn that reduced access to immigrant labor is limiting production capacity. "Without guest workers, we can't farm," one orchard owner said, pointing to gaps not filled by existing visa programs. Industry groups have described the reliance on undocumented labor as an "open secret," while arguing that enforcement without broader reform is disrupting supply chains.

The effects extend into hospitality and tourism as a February report found nearly 98,000 hospitality jobs were lost between late 2024 and 2025, with union officials linking the decline to enforcement policies that deter workers from showing up.