For only the second time in nearly four decades, enrollment in Texas public schools has posted a sharp statewide decline, with more than 76,000 fewer students enrolled compared with the previous academic year, according to a new report.
Since Texas began tracking enrollment data during the 1987-88 school year, the only other statewide decline came during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21. While pandemic disruptions largely drove that drop, education officials and researchers say the current decline appears to be driven by different factors.
During testimony presented before the Texas House Committee on Public Education, education experts pointed to declining birth rates, slower domestic and international migration, and heightened immigration enforcement that may be discouraging some families from enrolling children in school.
"This is a trend that we heard from our superintendents, our large district superintendents, in the first few weeks of the school year this year," Texas Education Commissioner Mike Morath said. "We cannot tell you the precise cause of this, we just know it has occurred."
Morath said the enrollment decline appears "somewhat more accelerated than statewide demographic trends indicated," as reported by KLTV7.
A report released May 11 by policy research group Texas 2036 found Hispanic students accounted for 81% of the statewide enrollment decline. Students learning English and children from low-income households also recorded some of the steepest losses.
Education analysts said the decline could continue for years as Texas prepares to roll out Education Freedom Accounts, commonly referred to as school vouchers, which are expected to shift more students from public schools into private education, including in parts of East Texas.
"This year's drop of 76,000, if it repeats itself, plus we know there's going to be the start of the voucher program that's going to go into effect next year, I think at a minimum next year's enrollment will likely be at least 120,000 students decrease," demographic analyst Bob Templeton said. "It will likely be greater than that, so that's a conservative estimate. That's a hopeful estimate."
Speaking before lawmakers, Templeton estimated Texas public school enrollment could fall by roughly 500,000 students over the next four to five years.
"This is not another blip or a one-off. This is an inflection point," he said.
The Texas Tribune reported the 2.1% decline in Hispanic student enrollment, roughly 61,781 students, marked the sharpest year-over-year reversal among the state's four largest racial and ethnic groups.
While experts say no single factor fully explains the decline, some believe the Trump administration's aggressive immigration enforcement policies may be contributing to falling enrollment numbers.
Esmeralda Alday, senior director of programs and impact at ImmSchools, a nonprofit that supports immigrant students nationwide, told The Texas Tribune she has spoken with families questioning whether it is safe to continue sending their children to school given the current political climate.
Alday said some parents have considered removing children from bilingual education programs or transferring them to virtual learning out of fear they could become targets of immigration enforcement.
"I've heard it directly from the teachers, from principals, saying, 'Hey, these kids just disappeared. Can you help us locate them or help us figure out what happened to them or to their parents?'" Alday said. "So, yes. It's fear."
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